Fyodor Lukyanov: Here’s what Russians think of Joe Biden
Donald Trump has predicted that Joe Biden will be remembered as the worst US president ever. History will decide on that, but most likely he’s a contender for the top spot in one category – as the most tragic figure to lead the United States, up there alongside those who have been killed in office.
Even leaving aside the personal traumas Biden has endured (the death of his first wife and his daughter, the death of his favorite son and the disgrace of another), his political biography is all about an ongoing quest for the highest position, in which he often seemed to find himself in the wrong place at the wrong time. Of course, he cannot be called a failure, but the end of his career is so depressing that one wonders whether it would have been better if he’d never reached the summit in the first place.
If Biden had been able to challenge Trump in 2016, when he was still quite alert and energetic, a lot of things might have turned out differently. For him, at least. The established narrative is that he withdrew from the race because of the death of his eldest son, Beau. The unofficial feeling is that he lost out to an internal lobby promoting Hillary Clinton. Whatever the case, he missed his chance for an ‘active presidency.’ Four years later, all impartial observers (and they were few and far between, it must be said) realised that Biden’s age and condition had rendered him far from fully fit. However, Covid came to the rescue, derailing Trump’s already rollercoaster presidency. By 2020, Biden was adamant that he would serve a single term. By 2024, he had managed to change his mind, but age had taken its toll.
Responsibility for Biden’s misadventures cannot be solely laid at his own door. Instead, the blame lies with the very community that Trump calls the Washington “swamp.” Until three weeks ago, before the disastrous candidates’ debate, the establishment was careful to pretend it hadn’t noticed how quickly the occupant of the White House was going downhill. After the horror show on live TV, everyone had an epiphany, and the hunt for Biden began, with behind-the-scenes squabbling between different influence groups and the engagement of family interests. Not just Biden’s own family, by the way, but apparently Obama’s as well, and even Clinton’s. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to end now, just because the president and his entourage have capitulated.
Vice President Kamala Harris is the most obvious and logical solution to fill the gap, although until recently nobody saw her as presidential material. While there are doubts about her ability, the main thing now is the need to present something completely new to the voters. The Democrats are in a difficult position, they have to take on Trump – and his new running mate J.D. Vance – but they can’t seem to agree on the best strategy. The whole Biden saga of the past six months is instructive in that regard.
It’s too early for Trump, who almost everyone thought was a certainty to win after the assassination attempt and subsequent Republican convention, to relax. His campaign will have to be rebooted and run at full throttle. From a Paralympic-style duel between two candidates with a disability, as it looked a few months ago, the contest is back in play. In this sense, the attempt on Trump’s life, whatever may have driven it, is a symptom of acute socio-political tensions that will only escalate in the US. And God knows what will happen in the remaining three and a half months.
As far as Russian interests are concerned, we have no reason to feel sorry for Biden. He has been closely involved in the story of Ukraine – arguably more than any other American official – since the beginning of the last decade. But it’s also fair to say that he has not been the worst option as an interlocutor in this dangerous confrontation. Quite experienced, quite cautious, relatively rational – as long as Biden controlled he political course, he was predictable. Whoever succeeds him will not have all these qualities, so the degree of volatility, as they say in the stock markets, will increase. On the Democratic side, even in the case of a serious shake up at the top table, we should be ready for the level of ideology to intensify. When it comes to the Republicans, we can expect attempts to shift all the negative aspects of dealing with Russia onto the Western Europeans, while the Americans will likely try to use their trickery to get Moscow to distance itself from Beijing.
No fundamental concessions or incentives will be offered to Russia. Nevertheless, the policy towards Ukraine is likely to be different, and here the person, or rather the groups he or she will represent, is important. But in any case, the risk of a possible backlash from the American public makes it unlikely that Russia will be made an offer that it could seriously consider. Even theoretically.
The significance of the ongoing turmoil in the US for us can’t be measured in terms of specific policy shifts towards Russia, but rather what it tells us about the general condition of the American political system. And its future potential. Right now, it’s being shaken in an unprecedented way and this will inevitably bring about major changes. The main question is whether the US will accept the current global trend (towards a more diverse international system – the so called ‘multipolar world’) or, on the contrary, whether it will try to return to its former singular leadership role. Coincidentally, Biden has found himself in command at the fork in the road, although this was a situation he certainly didn’t hope for.
This article was first published by Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper, translated and edited by the RT team
